As Americans try to prepare for what’s ahead with the re-election of Donald Trump, I am sharing some facts this week on one of the many areas of concern for pushback — the nature and climate crisis.
First and foremost to remember: his views as a climate change denier are not shared by a majority of Americans who are alarmed about climate change and want government and businesses (as well as all of us) to take the necessary actions to secure a habitable future on planet earth.
Two-thirds of Americans — that means many who voted for him — believe, in spite of fossil fuel misinformation campaigns, that governments must accelerate the transition to clean energy in order to meet the targets that scientists have made clear are the only way to avoid triggering negative tipping points that will prevent a return to a planet that can sustain human life.
Yes, human life is at stake. But here’s the good news…
Over the past eight years, the renewable energy transition has accelerated faster than anyone thought possible. The World Energy Outlook 2024 report states that clean energy is entering the energy system at an “unprecedented rate.” The amount of renewables worldwide is predicted to grow 2.7 times by 2030. Although Trump still clings to oil, gas and coal and plans to increase fossil fuel drilling here in the US, the world has moved on.'
“What we have now is actually unstoppable,” Christiana Figueres, who presided over the COP that produced the Paris Agreement that set the targets for a livable future, told The New York Times in September. “The direction is unstoppable. What we’re all focused on is scale and speed, but not direction.”
This week, representatives from nearly every country in the world are meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29, the annual climate summit organized by the United Nations, to negotiate agreements and outline plans for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Looming over the conference is the election of Donald Trump and his threat to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement.
Here, history offers some lessons. When Trump pulled out of the Paris Agreement during his first term, other countries largely continued to recognize the dangers of climate change and work towards finding solutions without US participation. Since rejoining the Paris Agreement under the Biden administration, the US regained its position as a world leader in regard to climate change with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest piece of US federal legislation ever to address climate change.
If Trump follows through on his threat and leaves again, the US will lack a voice in the negotiations and lose power on the world stage. Recognizing this, Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods, who is in Baku for the talks, “cautioned President-elect Donald J. Trump on Tuesday against withdrawing from the Paris agreement to curb climate-warming emissions, saying Mr. Trump risked leaving a void at the negotiating table,” reports The New York Times.
It's true that the COP process is flawed, as several climate leaders, including former UN chief Ban Ki-Moon, former UN climate secretary Christiana Figueres, and former UN climate envoy Mary Robinson, noted in an open letter sent last week calling for “a fundamental overhaul” that “shift[s] from negotiation to implementation.” Rather than giving up on the process established by the UN to identify pathways to a sustainable planet and healthy environments for all countries, we must continue to come together as a community of nations, recognizing the disproportionate impact of the nature and climate crisis on the countries least responsible for the crises, agree on what can be done, and most importantly, accelerate action. The future of the planet depends on it.
The big items on the agenda at this year's COP are climate finance and the NDCs, the Nationally Determined Contributions, which are each country's plans to reduce emissions. Targets were set in the Paris Agreement of 2015 and next year, an accounting of where countries are in meeting those targets (referred to as "The Global Stocktake"), will be undertaken at the COP to be convened in Brazil.
So where does this leave the world in terms of the nature and climate crisis? Scientists say that in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the world must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2035. This goal looks unachievable at the moment, but scientists also remind us that any progress in reducing warming, even as small as a tenth of a degree, will make a significant difference in avoiding the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
We're already seeing impacts with extreme weather and once-in-a-hundred year disasters happening with increasing frequency around the world, including in the US. But the majority of climate impacts are happening in lower-income countries. According to a range of estimates summarized by the World Resources Institute, the most vulnerable countries — the ones that have contributed the least and have suffered the most climate related impacts and loss of essential biodiversity and sustainable ecosystems — need roughly $1 trillion a year in aid.
“When countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, they decided to set a ‘new collective quantified goal on climate finance’ (NCQG) to replace the existing goal of $100 billion per year. The NCQG is meant to be adopted this year at COP29 in Azerbaijan. …It will support implementation of low-carbon, climate resilient solutions in energy, transport, agriculture and other vital systems. By increasing financial support, it should enable developing countries to step up their climate ambitions in the next round of national climate plans (NDCs), which are due in 2025.”
What to Look For: President Biden is still the president for the next two months. He can burnish his climate legacy by championing the mobilization of trillions of dollars in additional funds in climate finance to vulnerable and smaller nations, and by articulating a US climate target that is meaningful and reachable, taking into account that much of the work for the next four years in the US will take place in the states.
California — the fifth largest economy in the world! — and roughly half the US states will continue working towards the goal of zero carbon emissions. As climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe pointed out to Carbon Brief, “Groups such as the US Climate Alliance, Climate Mayors and America Is All In represent nearly two-thirds of the US.”
How to Get Involved: I was uninformed about the COP process (as I suspect many of you are) until 2017 when Mary Robinson (pictured above), the long-time champion for climate justice, gave me a new perspective on the social issues I had spent my life advocating for: gender and racial justice, ending violence against women and girls, and elevating women’s stories and ideas.
“Social justice cannot be advanced on a ‘dead’ planet,” Mary explained, “and that’s why climate is everyone’s issue.”
Being informed and knowing what actions we can take is the essential first step and sadly, we can’t count on most news organizations to keep us informed. Climate was never front and center in this presidential election…or we wouldn’t have elected a climate denier. He’s got four years to slow forward movement towards a livable environment. According to scientists, we have only five years to act and be a force for regeneration and restoration.
I am still hopeful about work at the state and local levels and all the enthusiasm and activism I see leading to frontline solutions everywhere. Remember, we have the technology and the science. We just need the will to resist the pushbacks based on dangerous denials of the reality of this crisis.
Through Project Dandelion, the women-led global movement for a climate safe world that I had the privilege to launch with Mary Robinson, Ronda Carnegie and Hafsat Abiola, I’m witnessing a new unity among women climate leaders and frontline, Indigenous defenders and protectors (who are currently protecting 85% of the world’s biodiversity). To meet the positive tipping points of critical targets and to activate the public pressure needed to demand the necessary responses and actions, we need the majority of the world’s population who are aware and alarmed about the loss of biodiversity in nature and the polluted state of our oceans and rivers and air, to move from alarmed to activated.
For those interested in learning more about what you can do, please download Project Dandelion's new series of audio Giides (available in five languages) featuring influential voices that provide critical insights into how we all can collectively contribute to a climate-safe world. This interactive audio series, prepared for COP29, was created to help us unpack why COP matters and understand its important outcomes.
For the inspiration, always important to keeping hope alive, here’s a favorite reminder from Toni Morrison:
“There is no time for despair, no place for self-pity, no need for silence, no room for fear. We speak, we write, we do language. That is how civilizations heal.”
Yes, that’s the way we — in the US, especially — heal from this potential setback to a healthy environment. We stay informed. We speak often about what’s at stake. We take individual actions and support the organizations, the businesses and the politicians shaping the solutions.
And most importantly, we keep front and center the opportunity — indeed, the imperative — to do our part to ensure a climate safe world for everyone.
Onward!
- Pat
